Monday, April 06, 2009

Snow in Ann Arbor

It snowed a lot last night. Well... not as much as other parts of the state at similar latitutde, but a lot for Ann Arbor (and a lot, considering that it is April). I wonder, though, how many people are going to use this as an excuse to do them some global-warming hating. Usually, such attacks conform to the following:

1) Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)/Climate Change (CC) is a massive conspiracy.
2) No one has proven AGW/CC or AGW/CC is just a theory.
3) I can disprove AGW/CC. Let me show you.
4) It's snowing. Therefore, no AGW/CC.

What's wrong with this argument? I mean, it is snowing. It is April. Well, what's anomalous-sounding is that it is snowing in southern Michigan in April. If this were northern Michigan, snow in the start of April isn't that uncommon. Snow in Alaska in April is even less uncommon, so the presence of snow in upper latitudes isn't the issue, it's that there is snow where it is uncommon in April. But that the wrong way of looking at the issue.

Climate is more than a snapshot of a weather pattern in a small region of the globe. Climate is a concept that is actually somewhat difficult to grasp, which is probably why so many people fail to grasp it. In a nutshell, Ann Arbor is (according to Grolier Online Atlass) "Continental Humid" with (according to Buildingscience.com) a "High" rain exposure and (according to Theodora.com) minimum temperatures of negavitve ten to negative fifteen celcius and plant zone 5b. How does this relate to today's temperature and precipitation? Well... today's temperature and precipitation matches the climate range of what Ann Arbor is supposed to be. It's an example of what "Continental Humid" is (from Wikipedia):
The humid continental climate is a climate found over large areas of landmasses in the temperate regions of the mid-latitudes where there is a zone of conflict between polar and tropical air masses. The humid continental climate is marked by variable weather patterns and a large seasonal temperature variance. The seasonal temperature variance can be as great as 33° Celsius, but is typically about 15-22°C (27-40° Fahrenheit). The temperature difference between the warmest and coldest months increases as one moves further inland and away from the moderating influence of the ocean. Places with a hottest month temperature above 10 °C and a coldest month temperature below -3°C, and which do not meet the criteria for an arid climate, are classified as continental.[1] It is most prominent over a wide section of central and eastern North America, parts of Eastern Europe, northwestern Asia and areas adjacent to the Yellow Sea, the Korean Peninsula and Northern Japan. It is only found in small pockets (micro climates) in the Southern Hemisphere.
So... last night's weather (and today's weather, too) is well within the definition of "great seasonal temperature variance", especially since (regardless of how large the Great Lakes are) Ann Arbor is far "away from the moderating influence of the ocean".

Is AGW/CC a myth? Well, that is a subject upon which a scientist studying global warming would be better suited to answer, provided that you consider the concept of mythology of science something that a scientist would be qualified to answer. Of course, I am considering here, that "myth" is a word describing a concept or description of something that doesn't really exist. Therefore, since a scientist is trained to test whether something physical exists or acts according to a theory, and since AGW/CC is something physical and of a theory that is testable, then a scientist should be able to test the validity of AGW/CC. I am not an AGW/CC scientist, and most of the people who say that winter disproves AGW/CC aren't either.

However, I read many papers and discussions published by AGW/CC scientists, and the theory is consistent and sound. Therefore, I tend to agree with their findings, rather than those of the deniers. Okay, this is deviating into a different topic. Therefore, I'll end it here, with a rather unnecessary (and technically incorrectly used) Q.E.D.

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